THE overall champions of the Kuala Lumpur SEA Games will be determined by the country winning between 80 to 90 gold medals and not 100 or more gold medals.
While Malaysia’s target as hosts is to finish overall champions
with over 100 gold medals, a feat that would match the 2001 haul of 111 gold
medals when we last hosted and emerged champions, Thailand could spoil the
fairytale ending.
At the 2001 Games, Thailand attained 103 gold medals to end up as
runners-up. Thailand have boldly predicted a 100-gold tally for this year’s
Games.
If Malaysia and Thailand’s target are met, it will mean out of 11
participating countries, these two would bag 210 gold medals out of 405 at
stake from 38 sports.
While both Malaysia and Thailand managed to win more than 100
medals at the 2001 Games, standards have risen.
Others like Indonesia have always been keen competitors. Vietnam
have emerged as a strong contender in recent years.
An average of gold medals won calculated over the last four Games,
sees Thailand topping the list with an average of 96 gold; having emerged
champion in 2009 (83 gold medals), 2011 (100), 2013 (107) and 2015 (96).
Indonesia who hosted the 2011 edition have an average of 78 gold
medals over four Games, winning 151 gold medals when they were host, 53 in
2009, 65 in 2013 and 47 at the last (2015) Games in Singapore.
Lesser countries like Cambodia, Laos, Brunei and Timor Leste, can
win between one and five gold medals between them.
Purely based on averages, all indications are the overall
champions will win less than 100 gold medals.
Olympic Council of Malaysia, assistant secretary and veteran and
experienced sports official, Datuk Sieh Kok Chi, has boldly predicted Malaysia
will emerge as champions — based on an analysis he did on winning patterns in
the Games’ history and also the events picked for the KL Games.
His optimism stems from the removal of five sports from the 28th
SEA Games programme that Malaysia did not win any gold or silver medals —
canoe, floorball, rowing, softball and traditional boat race. This reduces the
gold medal tally of Thailand by 11.
• Dropping five disciplines of the 28th SEA Games programme in
which Malaysia did not win any gold — precision shooting, billiards/pools, keel
boat and sanda.
• Addition of seven sports with 54 events that were not in the
Singapore SEA Games — bodybuilding, cricket, ice hockey, ice skating, karate,
lawn bowls, and weightlifting; Malaysia are strong in all seven.
• Addition of events in existing sports, such as track cycling,
rhythmic gymnastics, squash and women’s football. (Track) cycling — sprint,
team sprint, keirin, team pursuit, individual pursuit, omnium, scratch race,
points race for men and women.
• And as hosts, he expects Malaysia to see between 10 per cent to
15 per cent improvement in the gold tally.
Based on Kok Chi’s analysis Malaysia can finish at the top with
around 118 gold if
not more.
not more.
But despite all “tailoring”, indications are the battle of
supremacy is going to be a close call between Malaysia and Thailand.
Among the sports making waves at international level include
badminton, athletics, hockey, diving, swimming, track cycling, tenpin bowling,
lawn bowl and archery. But the question going begging is whether Malaysians
peaked too early?
But coaches have assured that all is going according to plan come
Aug 19 — amidst the fact that many NSAs are still being coy about their gold
forecast.
Will Malaysia’s “master plan” to emerge champion fall into place,
or will the race with Thailand go down to the wire. The verdict be known on Aug
30 but everything points to the champions buoyed only by about 90 gold medals.
TONY is a sports journalist with close
to four decades’ experience
and is passionate about local
sports.
He can be reached at
tmariadass@gmail.com
BLOG VERSION
Level Field
Champion with less than 100 gold medals?
THE 2017 KL
Sea Games overall champion country will be determined with the country winning
between 80 and 90 gold medals and not 100 or more gold medals.
While
Malaysia as host have declared that they are determined to emerge overall
champion and see the need to win more than 100 gold medals and probably match
the 2001 achievement of 111 gold medals when hosted the last time and emerged
champion, Thailand will be the closest rival.
At the 2001 KL
Games, Thailand attained 103 gold medals to emerge runners-up.
For next
month’s Games, Thailand have boldly predicted 100 gold medal tally.
If Malaysia
and Thailand’s target are met, it will mean that between these two countries
out of the 11 participating countries, they would bag about 210 gold medals out
of the 402 at stake from 36 sports.
While both
Malaysia and Thailand managed to win more than 100 medals at the 2001 Games,
the Games standards have risen and so has the standard of many participating
countries.
Other
countries like Indonesia have always been keen competitors in the Games, while Vietnam
has emerged as strong contenders in recent years.
An average of
gold medals won calculated over the last four Games, sees Thailand topping the
list with an average of 96 gold medals having emerged champions in 2009 (83 gold
medals), 2011 (100), 2013 (107) and 2015 (96).
Indonesia
who hosted the 2011 Games have an average of 78 gold medals over four Games
having winning 151 gold medals when they hosted, 53 in 2009, 65 in 2013 and 47
at the last Games in Singapore.
When Indonesia
hosted, there were 44 sports and 545 gold medals at stake. At the 2009 Games in
Vientiane there were only 29 sports and 372 gold medals at stake, while at the
2013 Games in Myanmar there were 37 sports and 460 medals were at stake. In
Singapore two years ago, 36 sports were held for 402 gold medals.
Just based
on the averages of the six out of 11 countries, a total of 418 medals would
have been distributed between them.
What about
other countries like Cambodia, Laos, Brunei and Timor Leste, who probably will
win anything between one and five gold medals between them.
Purely based
on averages, all indications are the overall champion will be determined by
winning less than 100 gold medals.
No doubt
Malaysia have calculated their medal hauls and are confident of a 100 gold
medal and more, it is very unlikely to happen, even more so with Thailand
equally confident of a 100 gold medal haul.
Olympic
Council of Malaysia, assistant secretary and veteran and experienced sports
official, Datuk Sieh Kok Chi, has boldly predicted Malaysia will emerge as
champions and based on an
analysis he did on winning patterns in the Games’ history and also the sports
which have been carefully selected for the KL Games.
Among his reasons for optimism include the
removal of five sports from the 28th SEA Games programme that Malaysia did not
win any gold or silver medals — canoe, floorball, rowing, softball and traditional
boat race. This reduces the gold medal tally of Thailand by 11.
• Dropping five disciplines of the 28th SEA
Games programme in which Malaysia did not win any gold — precision shooting,
billiards/pools, keel boat and sanda.
• Addition of seven sports with 54 events that
were not in the Singapore SEA Games — namely, bodybuilding, cricket, ice
hockey, ice skating, karate, lawn bowls, and weightlifting. Malaysia are strong
in all seven.
• Addition of events in existing sports, such
as track cycling, rhythmic gymnastics, squash and women’s football. (Track
cycling — sprint, sprint team, keirin, team pursuit, individual pursuit,
omnium, scratch race, points race for men and women.
• And as hosts, he expects Malaysia to see
between 10 per cent to 15 per cent improvement in the gold tally.
Based on Kok Chi’s analysis Malaysia can
finish at the top with around 118 gold if not more.
But despite all ‘tailoring’ indications are that the
battle of supremacy is still going to be between Malaysia and Thailand and is
going to be a close call.
And with next Games host Philippines and next year’s
Asian Games host Indonesia, surely determined to put up a good show, the battle
could well intensify.
While the sports and events for the KL Games have been
carefully selected to give Malaysia an advantage – as it is usual in all
previous Games with host – it is still no guarantee with all the predicted gold
medals.
For starters, the National Sports Associations (NSAs)
who were very optimistic with their medal target prediction when attended the
selection committee meeting in June with the Olympic Council of Malaysia for
their inclusion of their athletes for the Games, many have toned down of
recent.
In a recent two-day meeting with all NSAs competing in
the Games organised by the National Sports Council to determine the actual
medal predictions for the Games, many NSAs have started to play down their
chances or playing safe.
Among the reasons for their playing down their chances
included injuries, opposition for rival countries and in some cases current
forms of their athletes.
With the recent performances of athletes at world,
Asian and international meets have given a positive impact for Malaysian sports
in generally, but has directly added more pressure to perform at the Sea Games
level.
Among the sports who have performed well at
international level included badminton, athletics, hockey, diving, swimming,
track cycling, tenpin bowling, lawn bowl and archery.
There is even questions being asked if the athletes
have peaked too early and might have a problems at the Sea Games?
But respective coaches have assured that everything is
going well and according to plan and they should have no problems rising to the
occasion at the Games starting on Aug 19.
Many NSAs are still coy about making their targets
openly, while many have come out openly to express their confidence to win gold
medals in their respective sports.
Will Malaysia’s ‘master plan’ to emerge as champions
all fall in place, or it will go down the wire having to fight tooth and nail
to achieve its target, will all be known on Aug 30.
But everything points to the champion emerging by
winning about 90 gold medal.
TONY is a sports
journalist with close to
four decades’ experience
and is passionate about
local sports.
He can be reached at
tmariadass@gmail.com
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